The Top Five NFL Betting Tips|en

[ 13-06-2016 ]
The Top Five NFL Betting Tips

There are more wagers on NFL games each week of the season than any other sporting events in the US. Why? The reason is that people are excited about football. They think they know more than their buddies. And, it seems so simple. Team “A” scores more points each week than team “B” and also has a star quarterback, a good running game, and they play at home, so how will they lose, right?

Well, perhaps they do not lose, maybe they cannot cover the point spread, and that is a bummer if you bet on them, but this is not all about picking the best team, this article is about picking good games, not good teams.

You can bet NFL games and playoff in a number of ways, but the most popular way is with a point spread. In this form of betting, the team which is favored gives a number of points to make the game closer, meaning that if team “A” is bit better and supposed to win, they may be -3 points.

For betting purposes, the casino says the better team gives up 3 points and the worse team gets 3 points. The underdog can lose the game by a point or by 2 points and a bet on them still wins!

So, will betting all underdogs win? Not really, the reason is any point spread wager has an additional cost. You need to bet $110 to get $100. That means you must win 52.38% of your bets just to break even. And, if there are lots of bets on one side, the casino charges -1.15 for the same bet and you must win 53.49% of your bets just to break even. What is an NFL betting junkie to do? Well, following some following sports betting tips is a good start, and staying away from totals and future's bets will help!

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Tip 1 - The Experts Are Right

However intelligent you are, however much experience you have or how many contacts you may have with inside information, the experts know more than you! This is the fact and you are on your way to winning!

Football bettors always see a half-dozen wagers which look out of whack and they can not wait to place their wagers against the line. Of course even Albert Einstein said that doing that against the spread over and over and expecting a different result is silly. That may be paraphrased, but stop doing what you do each year and do something different!

Sure, go ahead and make charts, plan power ratings, watch games in preseason and do your work, but accept that the experts know their job, and it is not just selecting the best team!

Tip 2 - The Line is set to Split the Bets

If you do not know it, the line is not set to select the exact number of points the favorite will win by, it is set in order that the total dollar amount bet is close to even for both teams. That way the casino is ensured to win money. If there is $1 million in bets on a game, they want $500,000 bet on each team so they can get $500,000 from the losers and pay back $455,000 to the winners. Keep in mind, you place $110 to get $100!

The experts who set the point spread know they need to make the game appealing to both sides, and with more people wagering the Cowboys, the line is set higher to slow down betting on Dallas and speed up betting on the Chiefs. So a game that is Dallas -7 indicates the number the experts think will split the wagers, not what they should really win by. Dallas is arguably the famous NFL team in the world, not the best team in the NFL!

If you have done your homework and believe Dallas is going to win by 3 points, you maybe right. The difference is the casino enticing bets on the Chiefs by providing 7 points. Now maybe that is a good bet to take the Chiefs and the +7 points.

Tip 3 - Lose Your Bias to Pick Winners

Let’s face it, almost every NFL fan has a favorite team, favorite players, and remembers great games and winning bets. Unluckily, that lends a bias to picking winners. You can not let your own psychological biases dictate the way you bet.

Only because you love the Steelers since your father was a big fan does not mean they can cover the point spread this week. Look at the way each team matches up and make your betting decisions on a sound basis, not because you love or hate a team. If you can not keep your feelings out of your bets, you will lose money every year. If this is the case, do not bet on any games which involve your home team or your favorite team.

Tip 4 - Bet the Same on Each Game

Walk into any sports book and you will hear bettors saying a game is 5-star, or a triple-bet or some other silly things. Are they saying that one game is so amazingly out-of-whack on the point spread that you should bet 5-times more money on it? Are they saying that it is a 90% lock? Maybe, but do not believe them. If that was true, they will be well off and so will you!

Place your bets the same amount all year, or build them slowly as a percentage of your bankroll. If you would like to start with a bankroll of $500 and last all year, bet $25 a game. If you wish to try and increase them, wager 5% of your bankroll on each game. If you win, you will be making your largest bets at the end of the year. And you need to be right often, because you do not have as many chances as with a basketball season with 80+ games!

Tip 5 - Bet Early

Now you know that the point spread is set to divide the total bet evenly on both teams, you must also be aware that the ending point spread is the overall market of wagers from all sources during the week leading up to the game.

Another word of saying, even though the experts set the initial line, it moves during the week according to what each handicapper with a few bucks thinks. If this is the case, then usually the final line is no bargain, but the early line might be. Therefore, do all your work selecting winners and losers (and set your own point spreads) early, when the games are over on Sunday, and get ready to place your bets late Sunday or early Monday morning.

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